UA-69458566-1

Thursday, March 13, 2025

Iran Update, March 13, 2025

Andie Parry, Katherine Wells, Carolyn Moorman, Alexandra Braverman, Ria Reddy, Siddhant Kishore, Alexis Thomas, Annika Ganzeveld, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update every weekday.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of the ongoing opposition offensive in Syria. These maps are updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

The Houthis have sought to obtain hydrogen fuel cells from unspecified Chinese suppliers to increase the range and payloads of their drones, according to a November 2024 Conflict Armament Research (CAR) investigation.[1] CAR reported that the Yemeni National Resistance Forces seized hydrogen cylinders bound for the Houthis in August 2024 that the Houthis intended to use for drone production.[2] CAR reported that the range of hydrogen-powered drones is at least three times greater than other drones. The Houthis conducted frequent drone attacks against Israel during the October 7 War and could use hydrogen-powered drones to attack Israel, commercial shipping, and US interests in the region. The Houthis announced on March 11 the resumption of their attack campaign on international shipping.[3]

Interim Syrian President Ahmed al Shara signed a draft constitution on March 13 that initiates a five-year transition period.[4] The Constitutional Committee emphasized that the document ensures a separation of powers between the legislative, executive, and judicial branches.[5] The document is based on Islamic jurisprudence but protects religious freedoms.[6] The constitution also grants Syrian women rights to education, employment, and political participation.[7] The constitution enshrines the freedoms of opinion, expression, information, publication and the press.[8] The constitution reflects the topics that Syrians discussed at the National Dialogue Conference in late February 2025, including transitional justice, personal liberties, the role of civil society, and economic principles.[9] The principles enshrined in the constitution are encouraging and may alleviate Western concerns that Shara’s Salafi-jihadi roots will negatively impact ethnic, gender, and religious protections.

Shara could use some of the articles in the constitution to consolidate his power over the Syrian state. Shara will appoint a third of the Syrian legislature, called the People’s Assembly. Shara could appoint individuals who are loyal to him and reluctant to hold him accountable.[10] Shara will also select the committee that will appoint the other two-thirds of the legislature, giving him further influence over the body’s composition.[11] Shara will appoint all seven members of the Supreme Constitutional Court, which gives him influence over how the court interprets the law.[12] The constitution grants Shara the right to declare a state of emergency with the approval of the National Security Council for a maximum period of three months.[13]  The newly-formed National Security Council is comprised of Shara loyalists, including Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra, Interior Minister Ali Keddah, Foreign Minister Asaad al Shaibani, and Intelligence Director Anas Khattab.[14] It is unclear under what conditions Shara could declare a state of emergency and what special authorities he would assume during a state of emergency.

Key Takeaways:

  • Houthi Military Capabilities: The Houthis have sought to obtain hydrogen fuel cells from unspecified Chinese suppliers to increase the range and payloads of their drones, according to a Conflict Armament Research (CAR) investigation. CAR reported that the range of hydrogen-powered drones is at least three times greater than other drones. The Houthis conducted frequent drone attacks against Israel during the October 7 War and could use hydrogen-powered drones to attack Israel, commercial shipping, and US interests in the region.
  • Syrian Constitution: Interim Syrian President Ahmed al Shara signed a draft constitution on March 13 that initiates a five-year transition period. The Constitutional Committee emphasized that the document ensures a separation of powers between the legislative, executive, and judicial branches. The constitution enshrines the freedoms of opinion, expression, information, publication and the press. Shara could use some of the articles in the constitution to consolidate his power over the Syrian state, however.

Syria



Former Assad regime members have continued to attack Syrian interim government forces in Latakia Province since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 12. Former Assad regime members attacked the gate of military barracks near Beit Yashout, Jableh District, on March 12.[15] Interim government forces arrested four perpetrators.[16] Interim government forces disabled an improvised explosive device (IED) planted by former regime members along the Latakia-Jableh highway.[17] Syrian media noted that this incident marked the first time that former regime members used an IED.[18] Interim government forces separately seized weapons and ammunition near Salata in the Qardaha countryside.[19]

A Syrian reporter told Syrian media on March 13 that many of the men who fought interim government forces in Latakia between March 6 and 10 armed themselves after former regime members began fighting interim government forces in the area.[20] CTP-ISW assessed on March 7 that Assadists have exploited a variety of grievances against the Syrian interim government to recruit insurgents who may or may not be motivated by a desire to restore Assad.[21]



Turkey will likely continue to attack the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) until the SDF fully dissolves and integrates into the Syrian interim government. A Turkish defense ministry source told Reuters on March 13 that the SDF-Syrian interim government ceasefire agreement does not affect Turkish efforts to “counter terrorism” in Syria.[22] Turkey often conflates the SDF with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and uses the term “PKK” to refer to the entire SDF. Turkey and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) have conducted nearly daily attacks targeting the SDF along the Euphrates River since late December 2024. The SDF-interim government ceasefire agreement mandates that the SDF fully integrate its military units into the Syrian government.[23] It remains unclear whether the SDF will completely dissolve or integrate into the government as military blocs and maintain its current command structure. Turkish officials praised the ceasefire agreement, but the Turkish military has continued to conduct attacks on the SDF at the same rate that it did before the ceasefire went into effect.[24]

A senior Turkish delegation met with Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara in Damascus on March 13, likely to discuss the SDF-interim government ceasefire agreement.[25] The delegation included Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan, Defense Minister Yasar Guler and Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin.

Turkish aircraft struck SDF positions near the Tishreen Dam on March 12.[26] Anti-SDF media reported on March 13 that the SDF and the Turkish-backed SNA conducted mutual artillery shelling.[27] 

The SDF conducted drone strikes targeting Turkish or Turkish-backed fighter positions near the Qara Qozak Bridge on March 12, injuring four SNA fighters.[28] The SDF said that the strikes destroyed two radar systems and armored vehicles.

Anti-SDF media reported on March 12 that the SNA repelled an SDF attack northeast of Raqqa, near the Turkey-Syria border.[29] It is uncommon for the SDF to attack the SNA in Operation Peace Spring territory, which is an SNA-controlled enclave between Ain Issa and Tal Tamr and north of the M4 Highway.


The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued to operate in Quneitra Province in southern Syria on March 12. A southern Syria-based journalist reported on March 12 that Israeli armored vehicles operated in Jabah, Quneitra Province.[30] The IDF previously operated in Jabah in January 2025 to destroy Syrian Arab Army (SAA) infrastructure there.[31] Israeli armored vehicles separately entered the town of Khan Arnabeh, according to the same journalist.[32] The journalist also reported gunfire and Israeli vehicle movements in Ain al Nouriya, northeast of Khan Arnabeh, on March 12.[33]

The IDF Air Force struck a Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) headquarters in Damascus on March 13.[34] Syrian media reported that the building is in a residential area of Damascus.[35] Israel has consistently struck targets in Syria in recent months but has not targeted Damascus since December 2024.[36]



The interim Interior Ministry began recruiting security forces in Suwayda Province on March 12.[37] Around 800 Suwaydawis registered to join the provincial security forces on March 13.[38] Men of Dignity Movement spokesperson Bassem Abu Fakhr supervised the recruitment process.[39] The recruitment of Suwaydawis is part of an agreement that prominent Druze militias and the Syrian interim government signed on March 10.[40] The agreement includes the establishment of security forces with Suwaydawi cadres under the control of the interim Interior Ministry in Suwayda Province.[41] The presence of Suwaydawi cadres in the security forces will enable Druze militias to maintain significant influence within these new security forces, regardless of the official chain of command. The integration of Suwaydawi cadres into the Interior Ministry will simultaneously enable the interim government to maintain some degree of control over Suwayda Province, an area where the HTS-led interim government lacks control.

The Syrian interim government announced on March 13 that Qatar will soon provide two million cubic meters of natural gas per day to Syria, which will increase the electricity supply in Syria by two to four hours per day.[42] The United States reportedly approved the agreement.[43]  The Syrian interim Economy and Foreign Trade Ministry separately announced on March 12 that it will restructure Syrian joint business councils with foreign countries, likely to facilitate economic cooperation with other countries.[44] The Syrian interim government’s efforts to improve economic conditions in Syria could help the government consolidate power.

Iraq

Axis of Resistance objectives:

  • Strengthen Iranian and Axis of Resistance influence over the Iraqi state and society
  • Harden the Iraqi government against internal dissent

Iraqi media reported on March 13 that the Syrian interim government warned the Iraqi federal government against allowing Iraqi territory to be used to threaten Syria.[45] Former Parliament Speaker Osama al Nujaifi’s political party told Iraqi media that the Syrian interim government also warned the Iraqi federal government about the possibility of Iranian-backed groups forming an operations room in Iraq to destabilize Syria. The interim government reportedly said that the operations room would include Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, Bashar al Assad’s brother Maher al Assad, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force operatives.[46] Iraqi media suggested that Iran and Iranian-backed elements are coordinating efforts to destabilize Syria in Najaf.[47] CTP-ISW cannot verify these reports. It is notable, however, that hundreds of Afghan Fatemiyoun and Pakistani Zainabiyoun fighters fled from Syria to Iraq after the fall of the Assad regime.[48] CTP-ISW continues to assess that Iran seeks to destabilize the interim government.[49] The fall of Assad marked the end of the greater Iranian project in the Levant for the foreseeable future and has made it extremely difficult for Iran to transfer funds and materiel to Hezbollah.

Arabian Peninsula

Axis of Resistance objectives:

  • Harden the Houthi regime against internal dissent in Houthi-controlled areas
  • Destroy the anti-Houthi opposition in order to control all of Yemen
  • Erode Israeli will to continue the war in the Gaza Strip

See topline section.

The Palestinian Territories and Lebanon

Axis of Resistance objectives:

  • Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
  • Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip                           
  • Rebuild and reestablish Hezbollah in southern Lebanon
  • Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel


The Lebanese cabinet appointed Brigadier General Rudolph Haikal as Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) commander on March 13.[50] Haikal previously served as the commander of the LAF South Litani sector, along the Israel-Lebanon border, during the October 7 War.[51] The cabinet also approved the recruitment of 4,500 LAF soldiers.[52]

Iranian Decision-Making, Internal Dynamics, and Foreign Policy

The United Kingdom (UK) threatened to impose snapback sanctions on Iran during a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) meeting about the Iranian nuclear program on March 12.[53] A senior British official stated that the UK is ready to take "any diplomatic measure...including the use of snapback sanctions" to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism allows JCPOA signatories to reimpose UNSC sanctions on Iran in the event of “significant non-performance by Iran of JCPOA commitments.”[54] An unspecified Iranian deputy foreign affairs minister will meet with his Russian and Chinese counterparts in Beijing on March 14 to discuss the Iranian "nuclear issue."[55] Iran may send Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi, who serves as the chief Iranian nuclear negotiator. The meeting will likely cover the UNSC meeting as Russia and China are both members of the UNSC and attended the meeting on March 13. Russia and China are also both JCPOA signatories.

UK-based outlet The Telegraph reported on March 13 that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered the removal of Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif due to Zarif’s opposition to deepening Russo-Iranian relations.[56] Zarif reportedly opposed Iranian military support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Zarif’s dismissal highlights Khamenei’s commitment to further developing Iran’s strategic relationship with Russia. The Iranian government previously shut down a major reformist outlet in 2023 for criticizing the government’s efforts to increase cooperation with Russia and China.[57]

The United States sanctioned Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad on March 13 as part of the US “maximum pressure” campaign.[58] The United States also sanctioned 17 shipping companies and 13 vessels for facilitating Iranian oil exports to China "worth billions of dollars.”[59]

Iran increased gold imports by 300 percent between January 2024 and 2025, according to an al Jazeera report.[60] Iranian reformist media reported on March 11 that "millions” of Iranians seek to buy gold.[61] The increased effort to obtain gold could indicate public distrust in the strength of the Iranian currency. The Iranian rial has depreciated to record-low exchange rates in recent months, reaching 923,050 rials to one US dollar on March 13.[62][63]

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed senior cleric Ali Shirazi as head of the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) Political Ideological Organization on March 13.[64] The LEC is responsible for ordinary police activities as well as for maintaining internal security in Iran.[65] Shirazi will be responsible for ensuring that LEC members abide by the Supreme Leader’s al ideology and the regime’s revolutionary and Islamic ideals.[66] Shirazi previously served as the Supreme Leader’s representative to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force.[67]

Iranian hardline outlet Farhikhtegan accused protesters who support the implementation of the Hijab and Chastity Bill of "inflaming society."[68] Supporters of the Hijab and Chastity Bill have demonstrated in front of the Iranian Parliament building in Tehran in recent days to demand the implementation of the bill. Farhikhtegan accused the protestors of "sounding an alarm bell" and "fuel[ing] polarization in society." The Iranian Guardian Council approved a draft of the Hijab and Chastity Bill in September 2024. The bill would impose stricter regulations on women’s appearance in public.[69]  The outlet’s criticism of the protestors reflects the regime’s understanding that the hijab issue is a contentious and heated issue that could spark internal unrest in Iran.

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events.

CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.

 


[1] https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/c4eae92382c7456cae8c607af9d03794 ; https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/us/politics/yemen-houthi-drones-report.html

[2] https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/c4eae92382c7456cae8c607af9d03794 ;

[3] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-12-2025

[4] https://www.alhurra dot com/syria/2025/03/13/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%B9-%D9%8A%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B9%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%85%D8%A7-%D9%86%D8%B5-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%87 ; https://t.me/G_CSyriaa/623

[5] https://t.me/SyrianArabNewsAgency/125132 ; https://t.me/SyrianArabNewsAgency/125126

[6] https://t.me/G_CSyriaa/623

[7] https://t.me/G_CSyriaa/623

[8] https://t.me/G_CSyriaa/623

[9] https://www.mei.edu/publications/national-dialogue-syria-step-forward-or-concerning-trajectory

[10] https://t.me/G_CSyriaa/623

[11] https://t.me/G_CSyriaa/623

[12] https://t.me/G_CSyriaa/623

[13] https://www.alhurra dot com/syria/2025/03/13/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%B9-%D9%8A%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B9%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%85%D8%A7-%D9%86%D8%B5-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%87

[14] https://t.me/G_CSyriaa/614

[15] https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1900128912182476858 ; https://x.com/thiqanewsagency/status/1900069053101723720

[16] https://x.com/thiqanewsagency/status/1900069053101723720

[17] https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1900197399085080732

[18] https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1900197399085080732

[19] https://t.me/syrianmoi/23328

[20] https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1900214921993900216

[21] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-7-2025

[22] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-says-forces-killed-24-kurdish-militants-syria-iraq-week-2025-03-13/

[23] https://t.me/G_CSyriaa/593 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-10-2025  

[24] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-cautiously-optimistic-about-syrian-deal-with-kurdish-forces-official-says-2025-03-11/

[25] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/top-turkish-officials-visit-damascus-turkeys-foreign-ministry-says-2025-03-13/ ; https://t.me/AbomosaabSharkea/138318

[26] https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1899928993044078979

[27] https://t.me/AbomosaabSharkea/138311

[28] https://x.com/SiyamandAli/status/1899978447847374927

[29] https://t.me/AbomosaabSharkea/138262

[30] https://x.com/Nuorgolan/status/1899939387166650389 ; https://x.com/Nuorgolan/status/1899912481683673566

[31] https://x.com/Nuorgolan/status/1881951683351323043

[32] https://x.com/Nuorgolan/status/1899945035983954122

[33] https://x.com/Nuorgolan/status/1899950638718472616

[34] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1900153322557825489

[35] https://x.com/omar_alharir/status/1900148559531409541 ; https://t.me/SyrianArabNewsAgency/125107

[36] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20241208-suspected-israeli-strikes-hit-a-part-of-damascus

[37] https://t.me/Euphrats_post/90011 ; https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1900138779513405764

[38] https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1900149242137563420 ; https://t.me/Euphrats_post/90011

[39] https://x.com/omar_alharir/status/1900136861340701163

[40] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-11-2025 ; https://t.me/HalabTodayTV/120799 ; https://t.me/HalabTodayTV/120785

[41] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-11-2025 ; https://t.me/HalabTodayTV/120799 ; https://t.me/HalabTodayTV/120785

[42] https://t.me/SyrianArabNewsAgency/125119

[43] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/qatar-supply-gas-syria-with-us-nod-sources-say-2025-03-13/

[44] https://x.com/SanaAjel/status/1899908206857461888

[45] https://almadapaper dot net/398589/

[46] https://almadapaper dot net/398589/

[47] https://almadapaper dot net/398589/

[48] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/fatemiyounzainabiyoun-influx-iraqs-intensified-hosting-two-us-designated-terrorist

[49] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-11-2025

[50] https://x.com/LebarmyOfficial/status/1900155492573335730 ; https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-appointments-army-chief-security-aoun-b51ab413676b39d8475d98e0383f788f

[51] https://x.com/UNIFIL_/status/1654435796869431296?lang=en

[52] https://x.com/OTVLebanon/status/1900132755599429642

[53] https://www.reuters.com/world/britain-warns-iran-sanctions-could-be-reimposed-un-security-council-meets-2025-03-12/

[54] https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/245317.pdf ; https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2016-03/UNSC-Res-2231_0.pdf

[55] https://www.reuters.com/world/china-hold-meeting-with-russia-iran-iranian-nuclear-issue-2025-03-12/

[56] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/db8aa6ea32bfd943

[57] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-5-2023; https://www.farsnews dot ir/news/14020613000711

[58] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0049; https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-set-reimpose-maximum-pressure-iran-official-says-2025-02-04/

[59] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0049; https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20250313

[60] https://www.aljazeera dot com/news/2025/3/13/iran-bets-big-on-gold-as-it-weathers-trump-turmoil

[61] https://x.com/Entekhab_News/status/1899349452923535741

[62] https://x.com/Entekhab_News/status/1899349452923535741

[63] https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/iran-currency-plunges-record-lows-amid-escalating-us-tensions-2025-02-08/

[64] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/732058/

[65] https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Pivot-to-Offense-How-Iran-Is-Adapting-for-Modern-Conflict-and-Warfare.pdf pg. 5

[66] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/283475

[67] https://www.iranketab dot ir/profile/28739-%D8%B9%D9%84%DB%8C-%D8%B4%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B2%DB%8C

[68] https://farhikhtegandaily DOT com/news/203591/

[69] https://iranwire.com/en/women/134055-irans-guardian-council-approves-hijab-chastity-bill/

 

Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12, 2025

 Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, Daria Novikov,
George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan with William Runkel

March 12, 2025, 8:00 pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of Ukraine's offensive in Kursk Oblast.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 1pm ET on March 12. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the March 13 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov offered a vague response on March 12 to the US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire proposal. Peskov responded to a question about Russia's response to the joint temporary ceasefire proposal, stating that "we don't want to get ahead of ourselves."[1] Peskov stated that Russia expects US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz to inform the Kremlin about the details of the US-Ukrainian negotiations.[2] Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on March 12 that its sources in the Russian government stated that the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal surprised the Kremlin, and a source close to the Russian presidential administration stated that the Kremlin expected the United States to discuss such a proposal with Russia in private before publicly announcing it, thereby providing the Kremlin time to formulate a prepared response.[3]

Russian President Vladimir Putin may hold hostage the ceasefire proposal to which Ukraine has agreed in order to extract preemptive concessions before formal negotiations to end the war have started. Reuters reported on March 12 that senior Russian sources stated that a deal on the temporary ceasefire would have to "take into account" Russia's advances on the battlefield and "address [Russia's] concerns."[4] Bloomberg reported on March 12 that sources familiar with the Kremlin's thinking and the situation stated that Putin will "stretch the timeline" for agreeing to the temporary ceasefire in order to ensure that his stipulations "are taken into account."[5] A source close to the Kremlin stated that Russia may demand a halt to weapons supplies to Ukraine as a condition of agreeing to the temporary ceasefire, but did not specify whether such a halt would include all international weapons provisions to Ukraine or only those from select countries. Suspending US or other military assistance to Ukraine during a ceasefire would be extremely advantageous to Russia, which continues to receive critical supplies and assistance from Iran, North Korea, and the People's Republic of China.[6] Such an enormous concession would also destroy US leverage in future negotiations, in addition to violating the conditions under which Ukraine agreed to the ceasefire in the first place.[7]

Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on March 12 that a source close to the Russian Presidential Administration stated that the Kremlin would "formally" give a "positive response" to the temporary ceasefire proposal but would also demand "impossible conditions" to which Ukraine cannot agree.[8] The source stated that Putin wants to remove Ukraine from talks so that Russia can engage in negotiations with the United States alone while also "correcting the situation on the front" to strengthen Russia's negotiating position. The source added that the conditions of the temporary ceasefire "must suit Russia" and that Russia's agreement to a temporary ceasefire during which Ukraine continues to receive weapons and financing from its partners and allies is "stupid." These leaks may be intentional and part of a Russian negotiating strategy that aims to push the United States to renegotiate its deal with Ukraine on the temporary ceasefire.

Senior US and Ukrainian officials have said that the purpose of the temporary ceasefire is for Russia and Ukraine to demonstrate their willingness for peace and that the temporary ceasefire and negotiations to end the war are separate matters, whereas the Kremlin may intend to conjoin them. The US-Ukrainian joint statement announcing the temporary ceasefire proposal on March 11 noted that Ukraine and the United States intend to name their negotiating teams and immediately begin negotiations toward an enduring peace — noting the distinction between their March 11 temporary ceasefire proposal and future peace negotiations.[9] US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on March 11 following the US-Ukrainian talks in Jeddah that the best goodwill gesture Russia can give would be to accept the ceasefire proposal and that if Russia says no, "then we'll know the impediment to peace."[10] Rubio characterized Ukraine's agreement to the ceasefire as the "kind of concession you would need to see in order to end the conflict."[11] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on March 12 that Ukraine will use the 30-day ceasefire to prepare agreements with partners regarding a sustainable peace and long-term security guarantees.[12] The Kremlin's reported intention to make demands supporting its overall war objectives before agreeing to the temporary ceasefire violates the stated purpose of the ceasefire and the sequence of negotiations that US President Donald Trump has laid out. If the Kremlin holds the ceasefire hostage to demand preemptive concessions while continuing to pursue battlefield victories, that would strongly indicate that Russia lacks any urgency about ending the war and is uninterested in making any meaningful concessions.

Russian insider reports about the demands that the Kremlin may make before agreeing to the temporary ceasefire are in line with Russian officials' public statements in the past months. Putin outlined in June 2024 — and reiterated in December 2024 — his prerequisite demands for agreeing to a ceasefire.[13] These demands include the full Ukrainian withdrawal from the territory in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts that Russian forces currently do not occupy and Ukraine's official abandonment of its goal of joining NATO. Kremlin officials have repeatedly insisted that any peace negotiations to take into consideration the "realities on the ground," and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov notably claimed on February 24 that Russia would only stop military activity in Ukraine when peace negotiations bring about a "solid, stable result that suits Russia" and account for the "realities" of the battlefield.[14] Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Russian state newswire RIA Novosti on February 24 that Russia will not agree to a ceasefire that does not address the "root causes" of the war.[15] Kremlin officials, including Putin, have repeatedly claimed that any peace agreement must take into account the "root causes" of the war, which the Kremlin has defined as NATO's alleged violation of obligations not to expand eastward and the Ukrainian government's alleged discrimination against ethnic Russians and Russian language, media, and culture in Ukraine.[16]

A leaked February 2025 document from a think tank close to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) that outlined a possible Kremlin negotiating strategy is largely in line with the Kremlin's recent public rhetoric and the March 12 Russian insider source reports. The Washington Post reported on March 12 that a European intelligence service obtained a document from a Russian think tank close to the Russian FSB's Fifth Service (which oversees operations in Ukraine among other things) written in the week before the February 18 US-Russian talks in Saudi Arabia.[17] The document states that a peace settlement to the war in Ukraine "cannot happen before 2026," rejects the deployment of peacekeepers to Ukraine, and calls for recognition of Russia's sovereignty over occupied Ukraine. The document calls for the creation of a buffer zone on the international Ukrainian-Russian border, including near Bryansk and Belgorod oblasts, and a "demilitarized zone" in southern Ukraine near Odesa Oblast and occupied Crimea. The document also states that Russia needs to "completely dismantle" the current Ukrainian government and rejects a possible Ukrainian commitment to not join NATO or to hold elections that include pro-Russian parties as insufficient measures. The document rejects any US plans to continue supplying weapons to Ukraine after any future peace deal and any Ukrainian plans to maintain its current number of military personnel. The document outlines ways in which Russia can strengthen its negotiating position by exacerbating tensions between the United States and both the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the EU. The document also calls for Russia to grant the United States access to Russian-controlled minerals in occupied Ukraine and for the Kremlin to focus on normalizing its relations with the United States by restoring embassy functions and appointing Alexander Darchiev as the Russian Ambassador to the United States.

The Kremlin has followed through with many of the document's suggestions in recent weeks. Kremlin officials have recently rejected the possible deployment of European peacekeepers to Ukraine, have identified the 2022 peace negotiations in Istanbul (that would have effectively disarmed Ukraine, banned Ukraine from receiving any foreign weapons, and forced Ukraine to commit never to participate in military blocs), and have offered to sign investment deals with the United States to extract minerals in Russia and occupied Ukraine.[18] Recent Russian rhetoric has also increasingly attempted to drive wedges between the United States and Europe.[19] Putin asked Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov during a visit to a Russian command post in Kursk Oblast on March 12 to "think in the future about creating a security zone" along the Ukrainian-Russian international border.[20]

US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe and Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Head Sergey Naryshkin had a phone call on March 11 amid talks about the war in Ukraine. The SVR Press Bureau reported about the call on March 12 and claimed that Naryshkin and Ratcliffe agreed to maintain regular contacts to help "ensure international stability and security" and "reduce confrontation" in bilateral relations.[21]

Russian forces recently seized Sudzha amid continued Russian assaults in Kursk Oblast on March 12. Geolocated footage published on March 12 indicates that Russian forces recently seized Sudzha and advanced to southern Zaoleshenka (immediately northwest of Sudzha).[22] A Ukrainian source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence stated on March 12 that Ukrainian forces have started withdrawing from Sudzha.[23] Russian milbloggers credited elements of the 11th Airborne (VDV) Brigade, 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]), and 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian Main Military Intelligence Directorate [GRU]) with the seizure of Sudzha and claimed that Russian forces are conducting clearing operations in the settlement.[24] Geolocated footage published on March 11 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced west of Basivka (west of Sudzha across the international border in Sumy Oblast).[25] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced near Sverdlikovo (northwest of Sudzha), west of Kazachya Loknya (north of Sudzha), within Zaoleshenka, within southeastern Goncharovka (just west of Sudzha), west of Kurilovka, north of Guyevo (both south of Sudzha), and southwest of Zhuravka (west of Sudzha in Sumy Oblast) and west Oleksandriia (south of Sudzha in Sumy Oblast).[26] Russian milbloggers claimed that fighting continued near Zaoleshenka, Goncharovka, and Guyevo and just across the international border in Sumy Oblast near Zhuravka, Novenke, and Basivka (all west of Sudzha).[27] A Russian milblogger called for Russian forces to create a buffer zone — likely in Sumy Oblast — after Russian forces push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast.[28]

Russian milbloggers claimed on March 12 that Ukrainian forces conducted HIMARS strikes against Russian forces in Kursk Oblast.[29] ISW cannot independently verify these Russian claims, however. Western media reported on March 5 that the Trump administration specifically suspended intelligence sharing supporting target designation for Ukrainian HIMARS strikes, and US and Ukrainian officials confirmed on March 11 that the United States restarted intelligence sharing with Ukraine.[30]


Russan President Vladimir Putin visited a Russian military command post in Kursk Oblast for the first time since Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024 — demonstrating Putin's desire to use Russia's seizure of Sudzha to project military success and strength against the backdrop of the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal. Putin visited a command post in Kursk Oblast and heard reports from Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov.[31] Gerasimov specifically commended elements of the "Veterany" Assault Detachment (Russian Volunteer Corps), 11th VDV Brigade, 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th AC, LMD), and "Akhmat" Spetsnaz Detachment for conducting the operation in which Russian forces used an underground pipeline to covertly attack behind Ukrainian positions in Sudzha. Putin thanked elements of the 76th and 106th VDV divisions, 11th and 83rd VDV brigades, 56th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division), 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet), 810th Naval Infantry brigade (Black Sea Fleet), 177th Naval Infantry Brigade (Caspian Flotilla), 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade (49th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]), 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th AC, LMD), 1220th Motorized Rifle Regiment (3rd Motorized Rifle Division, 20th CAA, Moscow Military District [MMD]), "Akhmat" Spetsnaz, and "Veterany" Assault Detachment for their efforts in Kursk Oblast. Putin acknowledged that Russian forces have yet to completely push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast and stated that Russian forces must seize all of Kursk Oblast "in the shortest possible time."

This is only the second time that Putin has visited Russian forces on the frontline since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Putin visited the Russian "Dnepr" Grouping of Forces' headquarters in occupied Kherson Oblast and the "Vostok" Rosgvardia headquarters in occupied Luhansk Oblast in April 2023.[32] Putin wore a military uniform during his visit to the Kursk Oblast headquarters — a notable move as he wore a suit in his April 2023 visits to the frontline. Putin is likely trying to posture himself as an engaged wartime leader and to include himself among the Russian military-political leaders responsible for recent Russian advances in Kursk Oblast.[33] Putin is also likely attempting to portray himself as a strong and effective military commander ahead of US-Russian meetings, including a meeting with US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff on March 13 during which the delegations will likely discuss the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal.

Key Takeaways:

  • Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov offered a vague response on March 12 to the US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire proposal.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin may hold hostage the ceasefire proposal to which Ukraine has agreed in order to extract preemptive concessions before formal negotiations to end the war have started.
  • Senior US and Ukrainian officials have said that the purpose of the temporary ceasefire is for Russia and Ukraine to demonstrate their willingness for peace and that the temporary ceasefire and negotiations to end the war are separate matters, whereas the Kremlin may intend to conjoin them.
  • Russian insider reports about the demands that the Kremlin may make before agreeing to the temporary ceasefire are in line with Russian officials' public statements in the past months.
  • US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe and Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Head Sergey Naryshkin had a phone call on March 11 amid talks about the war in Ukraine.
  • Russian forces recently seized Sudzha amid continued Russian assaults in Kursk Oblast on March 12.
  • Russan President Vladimir Putin visited a Russian military command post in Kursk Oblast for the first time since Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024 — demonstrating Putin's desire to use Russia's seizure of Sudzha to project military success and strength against the backdrop of the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Borova, Toretsk, and Velyka Novosilka.


We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

  • Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
  • Russian Main Effort — Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 — Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 — Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 — Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Supporting Effort — Southern Axis
  • Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
  • Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
  • Russian Technological Adaptations
  • Activities in Russian-occupied areas
  • Significant Activity in Belarus

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

See topline text.

Russian Main Effort — Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 — Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kharkiv direction on March 12 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked north of Kharkiv City near Hlyboke and northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk on March 11 and 12.[34]

The spokesperson for a Ukranian brigade operating in the Kharkiv direction stated on March 12 that Ukrainian forces are prepared for possible Russian redeployments from Kursk Oblast to the Kharkiv direction.[35] The spokesperson stated that Russian troops usually attempt to advance using small groups on motorcycle but may encounter difficulties using this tactic given muddy weather conditions.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 — Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)


Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on March 12 but did not make confirmed advances.

Russian forces continued ground attacks east of Kupyansk near Kucherivka and Petropavlivka and southeast of Kupyansk near Stepova Novoselivka on March 11 and 12.[36]

A Ukrainian drone regiment reported that Russian forces are concentrating near the east (left) bank of the Oskil River for future assaults on the west (right) bank during more favorable weather conditions in Spring 2025.[37] Ukraine's Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Major Viktor Trehubov stated that Russian forces were previously able to use icy weather conditions to transfer and replenish forces on the west (right) bank of the Oskil River are now using these force accumulations to increase the number of attacks in the Kupyansk direction.[38]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Borova direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on March 12 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced into northern Bohuslavka (northeast of Borova) and likely seized Zahryzove (immediately northeast of Bohuslavka).[39][40]

Russian forces continued ground attacks northeast of Borova near Nova Kruhlyakivka, Bohuslavka, and Zahryzove; east of Borova near Zelenyi Hai; and southeast of Borova near Cherneshchyna, Hrekivka, on March 11 and 12.[41]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Lyman direction on March 12 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized three square kilometers near Yampolivka (northeast of Lyman) and advanced west of Ivanivka, 300 meters from Novolyubivka (both northeast of Lyman) towards Nove (north of Lyman and west of Novolyubivka), and 200 meters in depth near Myrne (northeast of Lyman).[42]

Russian forces continued ground attacks north of Lyman near Nove, Katerynivka, Zelena Dolyna, and Novomykhailivka; northeast of Lyman near Yampolivka and Myrne; and east of Lyman in the Serebryanske forest area on March 11 and 12.[43]

The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction stated that Russian forces have been increasingly striking Ukrainian frontline positions in the Lyman direction with Shahed drones since late February 2024 and are using the drones like "mini" glide bombs.[44]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 — Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)


Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction on March 12 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Siversk near Bilohorivka and Hryhorivka, east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske, and southeast of Siversk near Ivano-Darivka on March 11 and 12.[45]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 2nd Artillery Brigade (3rd Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps [LNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating in the Siversk direction.[46]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar direction on March 12 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed on March 11 and 12 that Russian forces seized Novomarkove (north of Chasiv Yar).[47] A milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced 1.5 kilometers north of Novopivnichnyi Microraion in western Chasiv Yar.[48]

Russian forces continued ground attacks in Chasiv Yar, including within Shevchenko Microraion in southern Chasiv Yar; northwest of Chasiv Yar near Mayske; southeast of Chasiv Yar near Kurdyumivka; and south of Chasiv Yar near Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Bila Hora on March 11 and 12.[49]

Order of Battle: Elements of the “Sever-V” Volunteer Brigade and the “Dikaya Division of Donbass" (both of the Russian Volunteer Corps) and the 98th Airborne (VDV) Division, including its 331st VDV Regiment, are reportedly operating in the Chasiv Yar direction.[50] Elements of the Russian 6th Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd CAA) are reportedly operating near Predtechyne.[51]

Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk direction.

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on March 12 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced along 8 Bereznia Street in southern Toretsk.[52]

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on March 11 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced to Soborna Street and towards Mykhaila Hrushevskoho Street in northern Toretsk.[53]

Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Toretsk itself; east of Toretsk near Druzhba; northeast of Toretsk near Ozaryanivka; and north of Toretsk near Krymske, Dyliivka, and Dachne on March 11 and 12.[54] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked in Toretsk.[55]

A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Toretsk direction posted footage on March 12 of Russian forces conducting a reinforced platoon-sized mechanized assault in the area.[56] The brigade reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed two tanks and that the other two tanks retreated. An officer in the Ukrainian brigade stated that Russian forces have increased the intensity of their attacks in the Toretsk direction and are conducting both mechanized assaults and small infantry assaults.[57] The officer stated that Russian forces are conducting fewer glide bomb and artillery strikes but are using a "huge concentration" of all types of drones.

Order of Battle: Elements of the 68th and 163rd tank regiments, 381st Artillery Regiment, 102nd and 103rd motorized rifle regiments, and 174th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (all of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly operating near Toretsk.[58] Elements of the 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic [DNR] AC, SMD) and 238th Artillery Brigade (8th CAA) are reportedly operating in the Toretsk direction.[59]


Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on March 8 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in western Lysivka (southeast of Pokrovsk).[60]

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces "significantly" advanced between Zaporizhzhia and Oleksiivka (both southwest of Pokrovsk).[61] A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced in southern Udachne (southwest of Pokrovsk) where Ukrainian forces are counterattacking.[62]

Russian forces attacked near Pokrovsk itself; northeast of Pokrovsk near Tarasivka and Vodyane Druhe; east of Pokrovsk near Yelyzavetivka and Promin; southeast of Pokrovsk near Lysivka, Dachenske, Novotroitske, and Mykolaivka; south of Pokrovsk near Shevchenko, Vidrozhenya (formerly Novyi Trud), Novoukrainka, and Zelene; southwest of Pokrovsk near Pishchane, Zvirove, Leontovychi (formerly Pershe Travyna), Udachne, Kotlyne, Nadiivka, Preobrazhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Nadiivka, Bohdanivka, and Kotlyarivka; and west of Pokrovsk toward Serhiivka on March 11 and 12.[63]

An officer in a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction stated on March 12 that Russian forces have intensified infantry assaults in the area.[64] The spokesperson of another Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction stated that Russian forces conduct infantry assaults at night, presumably in order to better conceal themselves from Ukrainian reconnaissance.[65]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) are reportedly operating near Pokrovsk.[66] Elements of the 238th Artillery Brigade (8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly operating near Kalynove (east of Pokrovsk).[67]


Russan forces continued offensive operations in the Kurakhove direction on March 12 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked west of Kurakhove near Kostyantynopil and Oleksiivka on March 11 and 12.[68]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Velyka Novosilka direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on March 12 indicates that Russian forces recently seized Dniproenerhiya (north of Velyka Novosilka).[69] The Russian MoD and other Russian sources claimed that elements of the Russian 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade (36th CAA, Eastern Military District [EMD]) and the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) participated in the seizure of the settlement.[70]

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced to Vesele (northwest of Velyka Novosilka) and northwest of Dniproenerhiya.[71]

Russian milbloggers claimed on March 12 that elements of the Russian 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Motorized Rifle Division, 5th CAA, EMD) seized Burlatske (northwest of Velyka Novosilka), but ISW assessed that Russian forces seized the settlement as of March 2.[72]

Russian forces attacked north of Velyka Novosilka near Skudne, Dniproenerhiya, and Vesele; northeast of Velyka Novosilka near Rozlyv; northwest of Velyka Novosilka near Burlatske and Vilne Pole; west of Velyka Novosilka near Pryvilne and Novosilka; and southwest of Velyka Novosilka near Novopil on March 11 and 12.[73]


Russian Supporting Effort — Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast on March 12 but did not make any confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced in eastern Pyatykhatky and five kilometers near Zherebyanky (both northwest of Robotyne).[74]

Russian forces conducted ground attacks north of Robotyne near Novodanylivka and northwest of Robotyne near Pyatykhatky, Stepove, Shcherbaky, Kamyanske, and Lobkove and toward Novoandriivka on March 11 and 12.[75]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 247th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly operating in Pyatykhatky.[76]


Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Dnipro direction on March 11 and 12 but did not advance.[77]


The "Atesh" Crimea-based Ukrainian partisan group reported on March 12 that Ukrainian partisans conducted successful sabotage attacks against a Russian military rail line near occupied Sevastopol, Crimea on March 9 and impeded the transport of ammunition.[78] The Atesh group reported that Ukrainian partisans conducted another attack targeting unspecified Russian rail lines in occupied Crimea on March 12 and noted that it will take time for Russian authorities to restore the affected rail lines.

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Russian forces launched a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of March 11 to 12. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched three Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea and 133 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Oryol, Kursk, and Bryansk cities; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.[79] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 98 drones over Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Ternopil, Rivne, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Odesa and Kherson oblasts and that 20 decoy drones were "lost," likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference.[80] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian drones struck Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Sumy oblasts and that Russian missiles and drones damaged civilian and energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and a civilian Barbados-flagged ship and port infrastructure in Odesa City.[81] Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian ballistic missiles that struck the port of Odesa and the Barbados-flagged ship likely had cluster munition warheads.[82] Ukrainian officials reported on March 12 that Russian forces conducted a "double-tap" missile strike, likely with an Iskander-M missile, against Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast following March 11 strikes on residential, administrative, and enterprise infrastructure in and near the city.[83]

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Nothing significant to report.

Russian Technological Adaptations (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)

Nothing significant to report.

Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

ISW is not publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas today.

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)

Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin met with Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Major General Aziz Nasir Zadeh in Minsk on March 12 and discussed strengthening bilateral military cooperation.[84]

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.


[1] https://tass dot ru/politika/23373927 ; https://t.me/rian_ru/284768

[2] https://t.me/tass_agency/305257

[3] https://t.me/svobodnieslova/6487

[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-lawmaker-says-any-ukraine-deal-will-be-moscows-terms-not-washingtons-2025-03-12/

[5] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-12/putin-eyes-way-to-agree-to-truce-terms-with-his-own-conditions

[6] https://isw.pub/UkrWar030725; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030125; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022825; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022725; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022525

[7] https://isw.pub/UkrWar031125; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russias-weakness-offers-leverage; https://x.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1899523451398013397; https://www.president dot gov.ua/en/news/spilna-zayava-za-pidsumkami-zustrichi-delegacij-ukrayini-ta-96553

[8] https://t.me/svobodnieslova/6487

[9] https://www.president dot gov.ua/en/news/spilna-zayava-za-pidsumkami-zustrichi-delegacij-ukrayini-ta-96553

[10] https://www.c-span.org/program/news-conference/secretary-rubio-and-national-security-adviser-waltz-speak-to-reporters-in-saudi-arabia/657068

[11] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly4gldd5ljo

[12] https://suspilne dot media/968295-zelenskij-ukraina-gotova-do-pripinenna-vognu-risenna-za-rosieu/; https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/13544

[13] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-14-2024; https://isw.pub/UkrWar121924

[14] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-24-2025; https://tass dot ru/politika/22220403; https://tass dot ru/politika/22059349; https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/999586; https://interaffairs dot ru/news/show/50623; https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/1010498; https://russian.rt dot com/opinion/1447542-shafran-nato-mirotvorcy-ukraina; https://sputnik dot by/20250307/peskov-osnovoy-peregovorov-po-ukraine-mogut-stat-stambulskie-soglasheniya-1094265351.html

[15] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-24-2025

[16] https://isw.pub/UkrWar030625; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-12-2025; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031025; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022625; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-24-2025; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022025; https://isw.pub/UkrWar013025; https://isw.pub/UkrWar012025; https://isw.pub/UkrWar122924

[17] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/03/12/trump-russia-ukraine-negotiations-fsb-document/

[18] https://isw.pub/UkrWar022325; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030625; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030225

[19] https://isw.pub/UkrWar031025 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030625

[20] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/76446

[21] http://svr.gov dot ru/smi/2025/03/costoyalsya-telefonnyy-razgovor-direktora-svr-rossii-s-e-naryshkina-s-glavoy-tsru-ssha-dzh-retkliffo.htm; https://t.me/MID_Russia/53568

[22] https://x.com/UAControlMap/status/1899721021306949748; https://x.com/Richer214469/status/1899713359546896503; https://t.me/divgen/64847; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8621; https://t.me/SolovievLive/314468; https://t.me/rodnaya_sudzha/13945

[23] https://deepstatemap dot live/en#14/51.1889194/35.2550411 ; https://suspilne dot media/968353-ssa-vidnovili-vijskovu-dopomogu-ukraini-tramp-hoce-peregovoriti-z-putinim-1113-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1741784339&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps

[24] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/87790 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/87806 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62781 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62781 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/87767 ; https://t.me/motopatriot78/33382 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/66544 ; https://t.me/rusich_army/21602

[25] https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/26360; https://x.com/Raver__/status/1899718473275600953; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8617; https://t.me/kozakgyluntv/21196; https://x.com/TuiteroMartin/status/1899725430933926181

[26] https://t.me/z_arhiv/31096 ; https://t.me/motopatriot78/33382 ; https://t.me/z_arhiv/31096

[27] https://t.me/rybar/68776 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/87822 ; https://t.me/yurasumy/21796 ;

[28] https://t.me/notes_veterans/22420

[29] https://t.me/dva_majors/66542 ; https://t.me/rusich_army/21602 ; https://t.me/epoddubny/22765 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25222

[30] https://isw.pub/UkrWar030525 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-11-2025

[31] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/76446

[32] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65007289

[33] https://t.me/mod_russia/50027 ; https://t.me/news_kremlin/5306

[34] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02aNQDHfFjeoeW6onDmxKw2Z3hE59ah8U8FVTDA4qS8fjH8fmBhbn9EanUdH9yHH9Zl; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/21911; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/6241

[35] https://suspilne dot media/kharkiv/968413-u-brigadi-gart-prokomentuvali-mozlivist-aktivizacii-bojovih-dij-na-pivnoci-harkivsini/

[36] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid021xEtMmNrgVHrqKRmCGRVhdDTrNtFzTYuPs85Q83aNM3YMTiv1yg666ydEUPymzLcl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02aNQDHfFjeoeW6onDmxKw2Z3hE59ah8U8FVTDA4qS8fjH8fmBhbn9EanUdH9yHH9Zl; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/21911; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/6241

[37] https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/6225; https://t.me/nemesis_412/242

[38] https://suspilne dot media/kharkiv/968331-rosia-provela-40-atak-na-kupanskomu-napramku-za-den-komentar-recnika-osuv-hortica/

[39] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8614; https://t.me/seekservice/4393

[40] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8614; https://t.me/seekservice/4393

[41] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid021xEtMmNrgVHrqKRmCGRVhdDTrNtFzTYuPs85Q83aNM3YMTiv1yg666ydEUPymzLcl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02aNQDHfFjeoeW6onDmxKw2Z3hE59ah8U8FVTDA4qS8fjH8fmBhbn9EanUdH9yHH9Zl; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/21911; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/6241

[42] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25220; https:// t.me/z_arhiv/31099

[43] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid021xEtMmNrgVHrqKRmCGRVhdDTrNtFzTYuPs85Q83aNM3YMTiv1yg666ydEUPymzLcl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02aNQDHfFjeoeW6onDmxKw2Z3hE59ah8U8FVTDA4qS8fjH8fmBhbn9EanUdH9yHH9Zl; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/21911; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/6241

[44] https://suspilne dot media/donbas/968917-duze-bagato-vipadkiv-strileckogo-bou-recnik-60-brigadi-pro-limanskij-napramok/

[45] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid021xEtMmNrgVHrqKRmCGRVhdDTrNtFzTYuPs85Q83aNM3YMTiv1yg666ydEUPymzLcl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02aNQDHfFjeoeW6onDmxKw2Z3hE59ah8U8FVTDA4qS8fjH8fmBhbn9EanUdH9yHH9Zl; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/21911l; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/6241

[46] https://t.me/epoddubny/22773

[47] https://t.me/mod_russia/49999; https://t.me/NgP_raZVedka/20808; https://t.me/NgP_raZVedka/20814; https://t.me/yurasumy/21797

 

[48] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25206

[49] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02aNQDHfFjeoeW6onDmxKw2Z3hE59ah8U8FVTDA4qS8fjH8fmBhbn9EanUdH9yHH9Zl; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/21911; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/6241; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02aNQDHfFjeoeW6onDmxKw2Z3hE59ah8U8FVTDA4qS8fjH8fmBhbn9EanUdH9yHH9Zl; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/21911; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/6241; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25206

[50] https://t.me/mod_russia/50004; https://t.me/epoddubny/22764; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/87761; https://t.me/motopatriot78/33446; https://t.me/motopatriot78/33447; https://t.me/basurin_e/17536

[51] https://t.me/mod_russia/50012

[52] https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1899742141246521551; https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1899742485175242757; https://t.me/arkhangelfront/14306; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8615

[53] https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1899779271956049942; https://t.me/Khyzhak_brigade/734; https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1899728252358291599; https://www.instagram.com/p/DHDj6SFoIVL/

[54] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid021xEtMmNrgVHrqKRmCGRVhdDTrNtFzTYuPs85Q83aNM3YMTiv1yg666ydEUPymzLcl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02aNQDHfFjeoeW6onDmxKw2Z3hE59ah8U8FVTDA4qS8fjH8fmBhbn9EanUdH9yHH9Zl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/21911

[55] https://t.me/wargonzo/25255; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/157478; https://t.me/mod_russia/50004

[56] https://t.me/ombr_28/1900

[57] https://suspilne dot media/donbas/968685-vranci-rosijski-vijskovi-namagalis-zajti-na-ukrainski-pozicii-v-rajoni-druzbi-na-toreckomu-fronti-28-ombr/

[58] https://t.me/dva_majors/66530; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/157478

[59] https://t.me/nm_dnr/13534

[60] https://t.me/HYENAGR0UP/186; https://x.com/Ryan72101/status/1899781968373456984

[61] https://t.me/yurasumy/21799

[62] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62784 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25235

[63] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid021xEtMmNrgVHrqKRmCGRVhdDTrNtFzTYuPs85Q83aNM3YMTiv1yg666ydEUPymzLcl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02aNQDHfFjeoeW6onDmxKw2Z3hE59ah8U8FVTDA4qS8fjH8fmBhbn9EanUdH9yHH9Zl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/21911 ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/6241 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62787 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62784 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/66526 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25235

[64] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/03/12/vchora-nakroshyly-yih-sogodni-takozh-na-pokrovskomu-napryamku-praczyuye-standartna-aryfmetyka-vijny/

[65] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/03/12/lyudy-v-nyh-zakinchuyutsya-na-pokrovskomu-napryamku-rosiyany-shturmuyut-z-velycheznymy-vtratamy/

[66] https://t.me/mod_russia/50010

[67] https://t.me/nm_dnr/13536

[68] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid021xEtMmNrgVHrqKRmCGRVhdDTrNtFzTYuPs85Q83aNM3YMTiv1yg666ydEUPymzLcl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid021xEtMmNrgVHrqKRmCGRVhdDTrNtFzTYuPs85Q83aNM3YMTiv1yg666ydEUPymzLcl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/21911

[69] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8624; https://t.me/voin_dv/13852

 

[70] https://t.me/mod_russia/49999 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/50005 ; https://t.me/rybar/68782 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25214 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/87762 ; https://t.me/z_arhiv/31102

[71] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62807; https://t.me/rybar/68782

[72] https://t.me/motopatriot78/33391 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/87781 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-2-2025

[73] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid021xEtMmNrgVHrqKRmCGRVhdDTrNtFzTYuPs85Q83aNM3YMTiv1yg666ydEUPymzLcl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02aNQDHfFjeoeW6onDmxKw2Z3hE59ah8U8FVTDA4qS8fjH8fmBhbn9EanUdH9yHH9Zl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/21911

[74] https://t.me/dva_majors/66526 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25204 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/25255 ; https://t.me/rusich_army/21594 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/305196

[75]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid021xEtMmNrgVHrqKRmCGRVhdDTrNtFzTYuPs85Q83aNM3YMTiv1yg666ydEUPymzLcl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02aNQDHfFjeoeW6onDmxKw2Z3hE59ah8U8FVTDA4qS8fjH8fmBhbn9EanUdH9yHH9Zl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/21911 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/25204

[76] https://t.me/rusich_army/21594

[77]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02aNQDHfFjeoeW6onDmxKw2Z3hE59ah8U8FVTDA4qS8fjH8fmBhbn9EanUdH9yHH9Zl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/21911

[78] https://t.me/atesh_ua/6490

[79] https://t.me/kpszsu/30457

[80] https://t.me/olexandrprokudin/6668

[81] https://t.me/kpszsu/30457; https://t.me/dsns_telegram/39450 ; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/03/12/ryatuvalnyky-pokazaly-naslidky-podvijnogo-raketnogo-udaru-rf-po-kryvomu-rogu/ ; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/20024 ; https://suspilne dot media/dnipro/968401-vibuhi-u-krivomu-rozi-poranena-ludina-vlucanna-v-infrastrukturij-obekt/ ; https://t.me/vilkul/9934; https://t.me/mykola_lukashuk/17695; https://suspilne dot media/dnipro/968561-znisenij-gotel-ta-udar-po-medikah-so-rozpovili-mistani-pro-ataku-balistikou-na-krivij-rig/ ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/03/12/kryvyj-rig-zaznav-podvijnoyi-raketnoyi-ataky-rf-ye-zagybla-ta-poraneni/; https://t.me/vilkul/9935 ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/03/12/u-kryvomu-rozi-zbilshylas-kilkist-postrazhdalyh-unaslidok-raketnoyi-ataky-rf/; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/20044; https://t.me/bbcrussian/77678 ; https://t.me/bbcrussian/77678 ; https://t.me/odesa_prokuratura/1127 ; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/03/12/vnaslidok-rosijskogo-udaru-po-odesi-zagynulo-4-inozemnyh-moryaky-torgovogo-flotu/ ; https://t.me/odesa_prokuratura/1127; https://suspilne dot media/odesa/968423-rf-atakuvala-priportovu-infrastrukturu-odesi-e-zagibli-ta-poraneni-prokuratura-rozpocala-rozsliduvanna/ ; https://t.me/OleksiiKuleba/5599; ; https://suspilne dot media/odesa/968861-v-ova-povidomili-pro-stan-sirijca-poranenogo-pid-cas-ataki-rf-na-port-odesi/; https://suspilne dot media/odesa/969003-armia-rf-udarila-po-odeskomu-portu-kasetnou-raketou-golova-ova/; https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid0325fXV6AGYFfoK17sRyYoqHKuEmYqzBtWkhZnJDScFseAn15UNptHqvReRPEFpDmHl&id=61567775044855;

[82] https://t.me/odesa_prokuratura/1127 ; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/03/12/vnaslidok-rosijskogo-udaru-po-odesi-zagynulo-4-inozemnyh-moryaky-torgovogo-flotu/; https://suspilne dot media/odesa/969003-armia-rf-udarila-po-odeskomu-portu-kasetnou-raketou-golova-ova/; https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid0325fXV6AGYFfoK17sRyYoqHKuEmYqzBtWkhZnJDScFseAn15UNptHqvReRPEFpDmHl&id=61567775044855

[83]https://t.me/dsns_telegram/39450; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/03/12/ryatuvalnyky-pokazaly-naslidky-podvijnogo-raketnogo-udaru-rf-po-kryvomu-rogu/; https://t.me/vilkul/9934; https://t.me/mykola_lukashuk/17695; https://suspilne dot media/dnipro/968561-znisenij-gotel-ta-udar-po-medikah-so-rozpovili-mistani-pro-ataku-balistikou-na-krivij-rig/

[84] https://t.me/modmilby/45814 ; https://t.me/modmilby/45810 ; https://t.me/modmilby/45815 ; https://t.me/modmilby/45820 ; https://t.me/modmilby/45826 ; https://t.me/belta_telegramm/299325